Business Cycles...and happily ever afters
3:29 AM
Time passes more slowly when you're a child, which is perhaps why certain childhood impressions remain fresh to this day, having taken the time to slowly but surely sink into the safest crevasses of my mind: brushing my fingers against mimosa leaves and watching them shrink and expand; winding up my metronome and running piano scales to the pendulum's steady beats; riding a creaking rollercoaster uphill and screaming out all my demons on the way down; the love for my sister turning into hatred when she wore my clothes, melting into fondness again when we created morbid storylines with our Barbie dolls.
Without being conscious of it, I was inducted into a world of waves, where emotions rise and fall, events begin and end, and everything repeats itself with time.
Why, then, did the world tell me life and love would be different?
Linearity, defined parameters, and Disney endings are all easier to accept than chaos and impermanence, but maths, science, and economics reveal that oscillation and change permeate our universe. This doesn't mean that economics will shatter our dreams of Beauty and the Beast living happily ever after together, but perhaps we do need to alter our perspectives and frameworks....
The Business Cycle
In economics, the business cycle describes the natural rise and fall in economic growth of a country over time. Each cycle is composed of four stages, illustrated and described in more detail below:
1. Expansion: A country's aggregate demand, output, income, employment, and profits expand, which leads to an increase in prices and standard of living.
2. Peak: Continued expansion causes economic growth to reach its peak.
3. Contraction: As the economy overheats and prices go out of control, an inevitable contraction occurs at some point--economic activity and demand slow down, as well as prices, income, and employment.
4. Trough: Economic growth reaches its lowest point, and everyone suffers.
The duration of each business cycle might be different, but history has shown that all economies experience such cycles time after time.
Which brings us to our next point...
The Relationship Cycle
Hm, aren't relationships (and life) awfully similar to business cycles? They grow, they peak, they recede...let's overanalyze the four stages below:
1. Expansion: Physical attraction and lack of familiarity with each other leads to increased intrigue, number of dates, and overall interaction. A meaningful relationship forms with these increased connections and attraction levels.
2. Peak: Continued obsession with each other causes relationship to reach its peak.
3. Contraction: With time, the sense of newness fades, conversation topics are exhausted, and flaws and insecurities are revealed, leading to potential conflicts, disinterest, and/or fatigue.
4. Trough: Prolonged conflicts cause the relationship to reach its lowest point.
Now that we've plotted the life cycle of a relationship over time, it's time to ask the critical question: Is there hope for a relationship that lasts, or are we fated to repeat cycle after exhausting cycle until the end of time?
The Silver Linings Playbook
Luckily for us, cycles, by definition, repeat themselves, and an economy usually experiences a recovery phase at some point after the trough. The economy might pick up due to low interest rates stimulating spending and borrowing, additional government intervention to boost spending and employment, or even technological advancements that create new markets and demand.
Similarly, relationships might naturally recover over time once the rough edges are smoothed and the dynamic once again reaches equilibrium, but they might also just splutter under pressure. However, just like a national government willing to do anything to ensure its survival, if you are truly invested in a relationship, wouldn't you also try your best to actively reinvigorate it?
I hereby introduce you to the "Tru Luv Stimulus Package"-- in times of emotional downturns, let's heed the actions of a central bank/government, but instead of injecting money and jobs into the system, attempt to pump life and chemistry right back into the relationship!
Like all stimulus packages, success is not guaranteed, but as they say, 'tis better to have tried and failed to salvage a struggling economy than never to have attempted at all.
At the end of the day, the ebb and flow of life is inevitable, but instead of resisting and imposing over-simplistic frameworks which lead to future misunderstandings and disappointments, perhaps it's more fruitful to embrace the waves: ride the exhilarating tides while they last, prepare yourself for the eventual downturn, and try your best to find/induce another great wave. Waves will break onto the shore and waves will recede, but in between the peak and the trough is life--running into the sea and leaving short-lived footprints on the damp sand, discovering previously hidden glimmering seashells, and taking in the sights, sounds, and memories.
Without being conscious of it, I was inducted into a world of waves, where emotions rise and fall, events begin and end, and everything repeats itself with time.
Why, then, did the world tell me life and love would be different?
Linearity, defined parameters, and Disney endings are all easier to accept than chaos and impermanence, but maths, science, and economics reveal that oscillation and change permeate our universe. This doesn't mean that economics will shatter our dreams of Beauty and the Beast living happily ever after together, but perhaps we do need to alter our perspectives and frameworks....
The Business Cycle
In economics, the business cycle describes the natural rise and fall in economic growth of a country over time. Each cycle is composed of four stages, illustrated and described in more detail below:
1. Expansion: A country's aggregate demand, output, income, employment, and profits expand, which leads to an increase in prices and standard of living.
2. Peak: Continued expansion causes economic growth to reach its peak.
3. Contraction: As the economy overheats and prices go out of control, an inevitable contraction occurs at some point--economic activity and demand slow down, as well as prices, income, and employment.
4. Trough: Economic growth reaches its lowest point, and everyone suffers.
The duration of each business cycle might be different, but history has shown that all economies experience such cycles time after time.
Which brings us to our next point...
The Relationship Cycle
Hm, aren't relationships (and life) awfully similar to business cycles? They grow, they peak, they recede...let's overanalyze the four stages below:
1. Expansion: Physical attraction and lack of familiarity with each other leads to increased intrigue, number of dates, and overall interaction. A meaningful relationship forms with these increased connections and attraction levels.
2. Peak: Continued obsession with each other causes relationship to reach its peak.
3. Contraction: With time, the sense of newness fades, conversation topics are exhausted, and flaws and insecurities are revealed, leading to potential conflicts, disinterest, and/or fatigue.
4. Trough: Prolonged conflicts cause the relationship to reach its lowest point.
Now that we've plotted the life cycle of a relationship over time, it's time to ask the critical question: Is there hope for a relationship that lasts, or are we fated to repeat cycle after exhausting cycle until the end of time?
The Silver Linings Playbook
Luckily for us, cycles, by definition, repeat themselves, and an economy usually experiences a recovery phase at some point after the trough. The economy might pick up due to low interest rates stimulating spending and borrowing, additional government intervention to boost spending and employment, or even technological advancements that create new markets and demand.
Similarly, relationships might naturally recover over time once the rough edges are smoothed and the dynamic once again reaches equilibrium, but they might also just splutter under pressure. However, just like a national government willing to do anything to ensure its survival, if you are truly invested in a relationship, wouldn't you also try your best to actively reinvigorate it?
I hereby introduce you to the "Tru Luv Stimulus Package"-- in times of emotional downturns, let's heed the actions of a central bank/government, but instead of injecting money and jobs into the system, attempt to pump life and chemistry right back into the relationship!
At the end of the day, the ebb and flow of life is inevitable, but instead of resisting and imposing over-simplistic frameworks which lead to future misunderstandings and disappointments, perhaps it's more fruitful to embrace the waves: ride the exhilarating tides while they last, prepare yourself for the eventual downturn, and try your best to find/induce another great wave. Waves will break onto the shore and waves will recede, but in between the peak and the trough is life--running into the sea and leaving short-lived footprints on the damp sand, discovering previously hidden glimmering seashells, and taking in the sights, sounds, and memories.
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