Economics (of Dating) 101: Tinder and the Art of Adverse Selection

4:55 AM

A series where I attempt to explain basic economic principles through the global dating scene. (Note: imported from previous blog)

Q: I just came back from the worst Tinder date ever! My date definitely added at least 20 beauty filters to her profile photo, brought a life-size doll to our date, and spent 15 minutes justifying Hitler's existence...I feel so cheated, but tell me, is it my fault for falling for her photo? 

Promise me this--never blame yourself for taking a chance on love! You, a fearless explorer, have left the cozy but parochial world of "conventional dating" in search of new adventures, and it's only natural that a few rotting space debris come flying your way. But the online dating universe is boundless and ever-expanding, so who knows what beautiful stars and planets you'll encounter in your lifetime! Having said this, I should've warned you that phenomena such as "beauty filters," "flattering angles," and "bad lighting" could distort your field of vision and hinder your judgment, so one should always err on the side of caution and add a Skepticism Filter: apply a 50% discount to every profile picture you see!

Q: That's the problem though--I wish there were some warning system, some rating system in the online dating world...sort of like Yelp or Uber! But I feel disgusted at myself for even considering something so dehumanizing. 

Indeed, dating would theoretically be much more efficient if we had reviews for everyone, but we would basically be trading in our humanity and souls for maximum efficiency. Also, given most humans are walking contradictions and attraction is subjective, it's debatable how accurate ratings would be! Hence we find ourselves in an awkward situation economists call information asymmetry--when one party in a transaction has more information compared to another.

To fully understand information asymmetry, let's consider the scenario below:

Jane, a perfectly normal girl, is browsing Tinder at home. Jane sees the following Tinder profile:

Using her perfectly normal deductive reasoning, Jane concludes three things about Brian:
1) Brian bears a striking resemblance to Zayn Malik;
2) Brian is new in town;
3) Brian is somewhat flirtatious given the winky-face emoticon and playful statements.
Thus, Jane assumes Brian is also relatively normal/friendly and swipes right.

However, here are some facts that Brian *conveniently* forgot to disclose:
1) Brian looks nothing like Zayn in real life;
2) Brian has a terrible, incurable case of bad breath;
3) Brian has an estranged mother who left the family to join a traveling circus; 
4) Because of all the above, Brian is extremely insecure around women and overcompensates by always dating six different girls at a time.

In this scenario, information asymmetry hurts the "buyer" and benefits the "seller": Jane overestimates Brian's quality due to the lack of information, while Brian lacks incentive to provide more information (the more he reveals, the more left swipes he would get). This is why information asymmetry often leads to adverse selection--the party with less information is at a disadvantage to the party with more information.

Q: Okay, that's quite depressing...

Actually, it gets even more depressing. Adverse selection can lead to a downward spiral in quality for the entire market!

Let's make a gross generalization and divide the Tinder market into two equally-common types of goods: High-quality dates (H) and Low-quality dates (L). High-quality dates value commitment, good conversation, and meaningful relationships, while low-quality dates are usually either browsing on their toilet or seeking bootycalls. If our dear Jane realizes she can't differentiate between high-quality and low-quality dates due to missing information,  she will assume the following for every person she swipes:

Expected Quality = Average Quality = 0.5H + 0.5L 
(50% probability of high quality and 50% probability of low quality)

Due to lack of information, Jane is unwilling to put in as much time and effort to attract 100% of potential dates, since there is a 50% chance that they will be duds anyway and she doesn't want to be let down. This will push high-quality dates out of the market, as they will look elsewhere for people who actually want to commit to something meaningful. This leaves the market with only low-quality dates left, which we will further divide to relatively-normal (N) and downright-creepy (C) dates. Jane will now assume:

Expected Quality = Average Quality = 0.5N + 0.5C

As a result, Jane spends even less effort attracting potential dates, since her dates will be not only low-quality 100% of the time, but also downright creepy 50% of the time. What's the point of trying hard at this point? This negative feedback loop basically keeps repeating until there are only bots left on Tinder, mindlessly echoing "FREE 2NITE?" and "NICE PIC" into the vast dating wasteland. In other words, we now have...



Q: Wait, weren't you just encouraging me to try new things and broaden my horizons? Why am I now the lone human in a Tinderpocalypse of bots??

Apologies for getting carried away...I definitely wanted to be more positive! But the market failure of Tinder does expose some discrepancies in 21st century man--we put up a curated front on social media and hide our insecurities and flaws, while at the same time expecting others to understand our true selves and accept us for who we are. We label others non-committal while being similarly afraid of commitment, for fear of being disappointed and exposed. There's definitely a way to correct this market failure, and perhaps it has something to do with making information symmetrical again, something to do with putting away our pride and being transparent, honest, and real with each other--both online and in real life.

Q: That's the cheesiest you've been yet...I want some ECONOMIC solutions please! 

Okay, okay, we can discuss more detailed solutions to market failure next time, but in the meantime I'll leave you with the wise words of Duke Ellington:

"How can anyone expect to be understood unless he presents his thoughts with complete honesty? This situation is unfair because it asks too much of the world. In effect, we say, "I don't dare show you what I am because I don't trust you for a minute but please love me anyway because I so need you to. And, of course, if you don't love me anyway, you're a dirty dog, just as I suspected, so I was right in the first place." Yet, every time God's children have thrown away fear in pursuit of honesty-trying to communicate themselves, understood or not, miracles have happened."

Until next time, and keep swiping!



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